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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkMonday, Mar 18 2024

ULSD Futures Are Trading Up For A 4th Straight Day, which Has Finally Broken The Downward Sloping Weekly Trend-Line Since Early February

Refined products are rallying again to start the week after another round of attacks on Russian refineries over the weekend. For RBOB futures, this is the 6th straight day of increases, and prices have added 22 cents so far in that stretch and touched their highest level since September. ULSD futures are trading up for a 4th straight day, adding 15 cents in that time, which has finally broken the downward sloping weekly trend-line that had pushed prices lower since early February.

When a refinery in the US has a power outage or other unplanned disruption, it’s very challenging to get a clear read on the operational status of the facility (even sometimes for employees of that company) given the complex nature of operations and the economic stakes of that information. Once that reality sinks in, it’s easier to understand why getting a clear read on the actual impact of the drone attacks on at least 6 Russian refineries is about as easy as pronouncing their names.

The 6 refineries hit in the past week represent 1.3 million barrels of capacity, which makes up 24% of Russia’s total estimated refining capability, or just over 1% of global capacity. If even half of that output is shut for repairs as several reports suggest, it will have a meaningful impact on export flows, with countries like Brazil that had reduced US purchases in the past two years to take more disadvantaged Russian diesel the immediate losers, while USGC refiners should see a tick higher in their diesel export volumes that had stagnated of late (see charts below).

Staging for a spring rally: Confirming their bandwagon jumper status, money managers look like they’re joining in on the spring RBOB rally, now that prices have already reached 6-month highs. 1 out of 5 remaining of the large speculative short positions in RBOB contracts threw in the towel last week, while more than 4,000 new long positions were added.

HO futures saw the opposite response from money managers, who liquidated long positions and added new short bets in the US ULSD contract last week. The European diesel (gasoil) contracts, which has more than double the open interest of its US counterpart, saw a small increase in net length last week.

While open interest has recovered from the “too hot to handle” period of 2022, both the total OI for NYMEX and ICE petroleum contracts and the positions held by large speculative traders are still low compared to before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine broke out 2 years ago. Since the refinery attacks didn’t really get going until Tuesday of last week, which is also the day the CFTC collects its data for the Commitments of Traders report, these figures don’t yet include how hedge funds reacted to the attacks, but based on the price action there’s little doubt that the big speculators were piling in to refined product contracts, and now it’s just a question of how long they’ll stick around.

Baker Hughes reported an increase of 6 oil rigs and 1 natural gas rig in the US last week, pushing the total oil rig count to the highest level since September. Given the months of lead time generally needed to get new rigs active, it’s unlikely that the latest rally north of $80 was the catalyst for the rig count rising in 3 of the past 4 weeks, but it does come at an opportune time given that US production has dipped from its record high of 13.3 million barrels to 13.1 million, if you believe the EIA’s accounting problems have been fixed.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkFriday, Mar 15 2024

Energy Futures Are Taking a Breather Friday Morning After Another Rally Thursday Pushed Gasoline Prices To A Fresh 6 Month High

Energy futures are taking a breather Friday morning after another rally Thursday pushed gasoline prices to a fresh 6 month high, while crude oil prices reached their highest since early November. Diesel prices are trying to drag the complex lower this morning, and continue to look the weakest on the charts, but the momentum overall seems to be favoring higher prices as we move into spring.

It’s been a good week for many US refiners, with PBF, Marathon, P66 and Valero stock prices all reaching record highs, even though the current margin environment is a far cry from the levels they enjoyed for most of 2022 and 2023. It seems that a few macro factors are feeding the equity strength: The 3 Russian refineries hit by drones this week, and various shipping disruptions around the Red Sea, and now perhaps the Indian Ocean, are a reminder of the world’s limitations, even when crude oil is ample. There’s also the sense that reality is sinking in that the energy transition is going to take much longer than many hoped just a few short years ago.

Ethanol and RIN prices continue their recovery rallies this week, with D4 and D6 RINs reaching their highest in 2 months at 57 cents/RIN, but are still down about 20 cents so far in 2024, and roughly $1/RIN from this time last year. A government investigation into improper accounting at ADM is now reportedly focused on the company’s ethanol trading, although it seems like whatever happened was in prior years and probably not contributing to the price swings this week.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Mar 14 2024

Energy Markets Are Continuing To Rally After A Strong Push Higher Wednesday Sent Gasoline Futures To A 6-Month High

Energy markets are continuing to rally after a strong push higher Wednesday sent gasoline futures to a 6-month high. Yesterday’s news of multiple attacks on Russian refineries had the buyers out early, and the DOE’s weekly status report added a boost to the gasoline rally, even though the report shows that the supply/demand balance is very different by product and by region.

While the DOE’s gasoline headline numbers were quite bullish, and the market reacted accordingly following the report, a look at the inventory charts below suggests we’re really just following the typical pattern of steadily drawing down stocks ahead of the spring RVP change. The DOE’s estimates showed an increase in gasoline demand for a 4th straight week, which keeps consumption right around the 5-year average for this time of year.

The USGC saw a large increase in diesel stocks last week, which helped offset another decline in PADD 3 inventories, which was foreshadowed by weaker diesel basis values over the past week.

Worst to first: After several months of being the cheapest in the country, Chicago ULSD is now tied for the most expensive nationwide as the struggle to bring BP whiting fully back online continues, which helped draw down PADD 2 diesel inventories for a 6th straight week.

While PADD 4 remains a rounding error and doesn’t really impact any futures or spot markets in a meaningful way, there does appear to be a potential diesel containment issue brewing for the Rocky Mountain region, with inventories rapidly approaching record high levels, likely in part due to the influx of renewables on the West Coast taking away one of their outlets. Several of the remaining small refiners in the region have been on the chopping block for years and this latest glut of supply will further complicate their economics.

The IEA increased its oil demand forecast in its monthly report, reluctantly following the lead of the OPEC and EIA monthly estimates, in large part due to the resilience in US economic activity in recent months. The report noted that seaborne oil exports are at an all-time high due to the major shipping disruptions forcing tankers to take longer to make their runs.

Bad news for Citgo? A Reuters report says the first round of bidding in the company’s auction didn’t go as well as hoped (almost as though bidders didn’t want to end up in years of legal battles if awarded) which suggests the courts may have to revamp the sale process that’s been going nowhere for years.

More refinery trouble? 4 different Texas facilities reported upsets to the TCEQ in the past 24 hours. P66 Borger dodged the wildfires last week, but reported 5 different flares were triggered yesterday, suggesting a multi-unit upset that could tighten up supplies stretching from the Panhandle to New Mexico. Meanwhile, Flint Hills Corpus Christi East plant and Exxon Beaumont’s chemical plant both reported brief upsets while Marathon’s Galveston Bay facility made its seemingly obligatory weekly flaring notice.

The recovery rally in RIN values continues, with both D4 and D6 prices trading north of the 50 cent mark Wednesday for the first time in a month. Recovering corn and soybean prices, which are boosting ethanol and bio prices, all seem to be contributing after all of those contracts reached multi-year lows in February.

Trouble in LaLa Land? California Carbon Allowance (CCA) prices fell by the most in 2 years Wednesday after the auction for Washington state’s made-up-carbon-credit program settled at half of the value of the December price auction, amidst concerns that program will be voted out of existence in November. While noteworthy, that drop in CCA prices only reduces the cost/gallon for consumers on the CCA line item fee (don’t call it a tax) by 1.5-2 cents from around 31.5 cents/gallon for California gasoline and 40 cents/diesel Tuesday night to 29 and 38 respectively today. The drop in Washington’s prices will be more dramatic, but since the auction values just posted yesterday, they’ll need another day to hit the racks, with just a 3-4 cent reduction witnessed so far.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 13 2024

After A Choppy Start To The Week, Refined Products Are Leading A Strong Rally In The Energy Complex Wednesday Morning

After a choppy start to the week, refined products are leading a strong rally in the energy complex Wednesday morning as some bullish outlooks from 2 of the 3 major reporting agencies and more refinery upsets both seem to be spurring a bid.

While diesel prices are leading the charge in the early going, with April ULSD up 7.5 cents, the charts actually look more bullish for RBOB which just half a cent away from reaching a 5 month high, which would set up a run at the $3 mark if it can break through that resistance.

Several more drone attacks on refineries in Russia were reported overnight, with the country’s largest facility said to have a fire in its main crude distillation unit and at least one other facility damaged in the attacks. While getting a real story from any refinery on the impact of a fire is challenging, let alone one in Russia, two things seem apparent from this most recent string of attacks: 1. Russian exports are likely to decline and 2. Refinery managers around the world are now wondering how they’re going to prevent something similar from happening to them.

It’s data deluge week with the OPEC, EIA both released yesterday and the IEA’s monthly report due out tomorrow.

OPEC continues to sound bullish on the global economy, revising its GDP estimates higher for the year, even though its oil demand forecast held steady from last month. The cartel’s oil output increased by more than 200mb/day last month as Libya and Nigeria – both of whom are exempt from the output cut agreement given the state of flux in their countries – had large increases. OPEC’s report also noted the continued strength in shipping rates as the worsening situation around the red sea requires longer routes to get oil and products to where they need to be.

A Reuters article Monday highlighted the drastic divergence in demand estimates from OPEC and the IEA, both of whom are no doubt using their monthly reports to promote their agenda. OPEC of course has incentive to believe that global demand is going to be healthy, and require more of the cartel’s oil to meet those needs, while the IEA has been championing the energy transition for years.

The EIA meanwhile is also sounding quite bullish in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook, making a large revision higher in its US GDP estimates for 2024. The EIA reduced its global supply growth outlook for 2024 after OPEC & friends extended their output cuts, which they expect will lead to a drawdown of inventories in the 2nd quarter. The agency predicts that the higher oil prices caused by the drawdown will lead to gasoline prices averaging roughly 20 cents more per gallon than they were estimating last month, which is probably more confirmation that the government is overpaying some company to provide their macro-economic data than anything else.

One interesting note from the EIA’s report is the impact that improving fuel efficiency is having on total gasoline consumption. The report shows strong growth in vehicle miles which are expected to hit all-time highs in 2024 and 2025, but gasoline demand is flat due to the better fuel economy.

The report also highlights the warm winter’s impact on natural gas prices which hit a record low in February. In total, the US had 8% fewer heating degree days during this winter compared to the 10 year average, putting plenty of pressure on domestic producers until more export capacity comes online in the next year.

The API estimated oil inventories declined by 5.5 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks dropped by 3.8 million barrels and diesel fell by 1.2 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time, and the refinery run rates will be key to know how well BP and others are doing in their efforts to restart their plants after extended downtime.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkTuesday, Mar 12 2024

After A Strong Monday Rally, Refined Products Are Seeing A Modest Sell-Off Tuesday Morning

After a strong Monday rally, refined products are seeing a modest sell-off Tuesday morning. A rash of refinery upsets and the February inflation report both seem to be contributing to the price swings in the early going as the complex is clearly still unclear about where it’s going.

February’s CPI came in just ahead of estimates at 3.8% for the past year, with the seasonal recovery in gasoline prices adding to the inflation, after lowering the total for several months.

Exxon’s 235mb/day refinery outside Normandy France had a fire Monday, which coincided with the rally in RBOB futures, which would make sense given the US East Coast’s reliance on European imports to balance supply during driving season.

Ukraine continued to hammer Russian refineries and fuel depots with drone attacks this week, and reports suggest Lukoil’s 360mb/day NORSI refinery was damaged. That facility accounts for more than 10% of the country’s gasoline output.

Can’t catch a break: Total’s Port Arthur refinery has taken over the lead in TCEQ notices in 2024, after Marathon Galveston Bay took top honors for most troubled plant last year. The 238mb/day Total facility reported that multiple units were shut due to a leak in an FCC unit on Monday, continuing a string of unsuccessful attempts to get the facility back up and running after January’s deep freeze.

Ethanol prices continue their recovery rally this week after reaching 4-year lows in February. Stronger corn prices, lower domestic output, and expanded approvals of E15 this summer are all seeming to contribute to that rally. RIN values have also stabilized around the 45-47 cent range, with the bounce in corn values providing some optimism that the worst of the RIN collapse (that were worth $1.57 this time last year) may be over.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.