Chances Of Stimulus Package Points Equity Markets Higher

Market TalkMonday, Oct 19 2020
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It’s a quiet start to the week, with most energy markets moving slightly lower on the day. The sideways trading patterns are still intact for most petroleum futures, with longer term charts favoring more downside this winter. Equity markets are pointed higher to start the week, with credit being given to increasing chances of a stimulus package being forced through congress this week. 

China’s refinery runs dipped in September, but remained higher than a year ago and are close to the all-time highs set this summer. That sounds bullish on its own, but inventories are also rising, suggesting that supply is outkicking its coverage from the demand recovery, and will put downward pressure on product prices in the months to come. European refiners are getting squeezed by the increase in Asian refinery capacity, and their own climate laws that are forcing more plants out of business. Something to watch near term is if Brexit negotiations mean more gasoline from the UK will be forced to go to the U.S. to avoid tariffs from the EU.

Money managers trimmed their net length in WTI and RBOB contracts last week, but while adding some small positions in Brent and ULSD. Enthusiasm continues to be lacking in the money flows to energy contracts, as the outstanding positions for most categories of trader are much smaller than they’ve been in years past. 

After 10 years, the CFTC finally passed a rule (which was required as part of the Dodd Frank regulations passed after the financial crisis) placing position limits on speculative positions in a variety of contracts in the energy, agriculture and metal markets. It’s no surprise that something that took a decade to agree on would be controversial, and reading the dissenting opinions of CFTC commissioners sheds light on the potential loopholes in the rule. With open interest already on the decline as the funds who tried to convince retail investors that oil futures were a safe investment are now limping towards the exits, it looks unlikely that we’ll notice anything different following the passing of the new rule. 

Baker Hughes reported 12 more oil rigs were put to work last week, a fourth straight weekly increase, and the largest since January. The interesting part of the increase this week is that Utah and Wyoming – which had just one active oil rig between them last week – saw five new rigs put to work. It’s much less surprising that Texas had seven rigs added, although none of them were in the Permian. 

Epsilon is expected to be named as a storm in the next day or two, with the NHC giving the system 100% odds of further development today. The storm is expected to stay offshore as it heads north past Bermuda, and should not approach the U.S. Coast, although some delays for vessel traffic along the East Coast could occur due to strong winds and some coastal flooding potential. The system in the Caribbean is still given just 20% odds of development.

A federal court ruled Friday that a default had occurred on PDVSA’s long-contested bonds, which were deemed valid and enforceable by the decision. That decision could ultimately force a sale of Citgo, which was used as collateral for the bonds, but the U.S. refinery is still protected by the U.S. treasury sanctions on Venezuela, at least through January.

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Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkThursday, Mar 28 2024

Energy Markets Are Ticking Modestly Higher Heading Into The Easter Weekend With Crude Oil Prices Leading The Way Up About $1.25/Barrel Early Thursday Morning

Energy markets are ticking modestly higher heading into the Easter Weekend with crude oil prices leading the way up about $1.25/barrel early Thursday morning, while gasoline prices are up around 2.5 cents and ULSD futures are about a penny.

Today is the last trading day for April HO and RBOB futures, an unusually early expiration due to the month ending on a holiday weekend. None of the pricing agencies will be active tomorrow since the NYMEX and ICE contracts are completely shut, so most rack prices published tonight will carry through Monday.

Gasoline inventories broke from tradition and snapped a 7 week decline as Gulf Coast supplies increased, more than offsetting the declines in PADDs 1, 2 and 5. With gulf coast refiners returning from maintenance and cranking out summer grade gasoline, the race is now officially on to move their excess through the rest of the country before the terminal and retail deadlines in the next two months. While PADD 3 run rates recover, PADD 2 is expected to see rates decline in the coming weeks with 2 Chicago-area refineries scheduled for planned maintenance, just a couple of weeks after BP returned from 7 weeks of unplanned repairs.

Although terminal supplies appear to be ample around the Baltimore area, we have seen linespace values for shipping gasoline on Colonial tick higher in the wake of the tragic bridge collapse as some traders seem to be making a small bet that the lack of supplemental barge resupply may keep inventories tight until the barge traffic can move once again. The only notable threat to refined product supplies is from ethanol barge traffic which will need to be replaced by truck and rail options, but so far that doesn’t seem to be impacting availability at the rack. Colonial did announce that they would delay the closure of its underutilized Baltimore north line segment that was scheduled for April 1 to May 1 out of an “abundance of caution”.

Ethanol inventories reached a 1-year high last week as output continues to hold above the seasonal range as ethanol distillers seem to be betting that expanded use of E15 blends will be enough to offset sluggish gasoline demand. A Bloomberg article this morning also highlights why soybeans are beginning to displace corn in the subsidized food to fuel race.

Flint Hills reported a Tuesday fire at its Corpus Christi West facility Wednesday, although it’s unclear if that event will have a material impact on output after an FCC unit was “stabilized” during the fire. While that facility isn’t connected to Colonial, and thus doesn’t tend to have an impact on USGC spot pricing, it is a key supplier to the San Antonio, Austin and DFW markets, so any downtime may be felt at those racks.

Meanwhile, P66 reported ongoing flaring at its Borger TX refinery due to an unknown cause. That facility narrowly avoided the worst wildfires in state history a few weeks ago but is one of the frequent fliers on the TCEQ program with upsets fairly common in recent years.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk, including all charts from the Weekly DOE Report.

Pivotal Week For Price Action
Pivotal Week For Price Action
Market TalkWednesday, Mar 27 2024

Most Energy Contracts Are Ticking Lower For A 2nd Day After A Trickle Of Selling Picked Up Steam Tuesday

Most energy contracts are ticking lower for a 2nd day after a trickle of selling picked up steam Tuesday. ULSD futures are down a dime from Monday’s highs and RBOB futures are down 7 cents.

Diesel prices continue to look like the weak link in the energy chain, with futures coming within 1 point of their March lows overnight, setting up a test of the December lows around $2.48 if that resistance breaks down. Despite yesterday’s slide, RBOB futures still look bullish on the weekly charts, with a run towards the $3 mark still looking like a strong possibility in the next month or so.

The API reported crude stocks increased by more than 9 million barrels last week, while distillates were up 531,000 and gasoline stocks continued their seasonal decline falling by 4.4 million barrels. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.

RIN values have recovered to their highest levels in 2 months around $.59/RIN for D4 and D6 RINs, even though the recovery rally in corn and soybean prices that had helped lift prices off of the 4 year lows set in February has stalled out. Expectations for more biofuel production to be shut in due to weak economics with lower subsidy values seems to be encouraging the tick higher in recent weeks, although prices are still about $1/RIN lower than this time last year.

Reminder that Friday is one of only 3 annual holidays in which the Nymex is completely shut, so no prices will be published, but it’s not a federal holiday in the US so banks will be open.

Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.