Markets Hold Their Breath Ahead Of U.S. Presidential Inauguration
Energy markets have gained back the modest losses we saw in Monday’s abbreviated trading session, and are trading close to flat from Friday’s close. The upward sloping trendlines remain in place, but the bulls have some work to do to regain the momentum after the rally stalled last week.
U.S. equity markets are pointing higher, and the U.S. dollar is pointing lower, both of which may be contributing to the small bounce in energy futures to start the day as the markets seem to be holding their breath ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. presidential inauguration.
Pipelines look like they might be one of the first battlegrounds for the new administration with the Keystone XL developer offering a plan to make the pipeline “Carbon Neutral” in an effort to stop the incoming President from pulling the permit for the project on day 1 as reports suggest he is planning to do. The Keystone XL pipeline has been a political football for more than a decade at this point, but it’s the threat to Enbridge’s Line 5 traversing Michigan that could have more impact if it’s forced to close since it is currently in operation, with Marathon’s Detroit refinery likely to feel the most impact as nearly 1/3 of its crude comes from that line.
There’s a general expectation that an “ambitious” climate-related plan will be rolled out, but few details have yet been revealed, leaving the talking heads to debate whether the plan could be a great victory for the environment, or the end of the American Dream. Those hoping for moderation will find solace that despite one party controlling the legislative and executive branches, support from both parties is still likely to be needed for new laws to make it through the Senate.
Several reports in recent days have noted that California politicians are taking key roles in the new cabinet (in addition to the VP, who will have tie-breaking capabilities in the Senate). It’s possible that this could end up leading to federal programs that resemble the Golden State’s alphabet soup of environmental policies that put multiple different taxes and fees on fuel sales in order to limit certain fuel sales and fund new “clean[er] energy” projects.
The IEA’s monthly oil market report revised global demand estimates lower for the year due to the resurgence in COVID cases, and accompanying lockdowns. The report did offer some optimism for rapid improvement in the back half of the year as vaccine efforts and stimulus packages should both contribute to increased consumption, but that expected growth is not large enough to offset the drop in demand expected in Q1. The report did not offer a lot of optimism for refiners near term, noting that despite the cold snap that’s caused a spike in heating demand in Europe and Asia, refinery margins haven’t improved much as more plants coming out of turnaround were able to offset the increase in distillate demand.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk