Rising Fuel Stockpiles Outweighing Rising Stock Markets
Rising fuel stockpiles are outweighing rising stock markets as RBOB gasoline futures trade lower for a 6th straight session and the rest of the energy complex continues to hover near multi-month lows.
US equities had a huge rally Tuesday, which seemed to help energy prices pull back from the multi-month lows, after the FED Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that an interest rate cut may be coming to help offset potential impacts of the trade wars. The CME’s fedwatch tool is showing a nearly 70% probability that the FED will cut rates by at least 25 points by the end of July following those statements, up from less than a 30% probability just a week ago. With expectations changing that rapidly, it seems like the market may be setting itself up for disappointment if that rate cut doesn’t come soon.
Unfortunately for the beleaguered bulls in energy contracts, the equity-induced bounce didn’t hold up after the API was said to report across-the-board builds in inventory last week. Diesel stocks were estimated to have the largest increase of 6.3 million barrels, while crude stocks were up 3.6 million and gasoline supplies increased by 2.7 million barrels. The DOE/EIA’s weekly report is due out at its normal time of 9:30 central.
The storms moving across the Gulf of Mexico are not expected to develop into a tropical system, but they are expected to bring flooding rains to refinery country. The majority of gulf coast refineries, and more than 1/3 of the country’s total, and are covered by the flood alerts through the end of the week. While major refinery damage from a disorganized system like this seems unlikely, it is certainly possible that it could further disrupt pipeline and/or marine vessel traffic and perhaps back up barrels destined for export, leading to more inventory builds in next week’s reports.
The additional rains are even less welcome in the Midwest, as it looks like a record amount of farm land will go unplanted this year. The charts below show how that continues to put a bid under ethanol prices, while diesel differentials in the region are collapsing.
A Wall Street journal survey of 10 investment banks suggests the latest price plunge hasn’t changed their outlooks for oil prices in the back half of the year, with most still targeting Brent around $70. The bulls will find solace in their predictions that fundamental supply tightness will eventually outweigh trade fears in sending prices higher, while the bears will find solace that these predictions come from the same institutions that made up credit default swaps on mortgage backed securities.
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Energy Markets Rally Again Thursday After A Choppy Wednesday Session
Energy markets are trying to rally again Thursday after a choppy Wednesday session. RBOB gasoline futures are leading the push higher, on pace for a 3rd consecutive day of gains after finding a temporary floor Tuesday and have added 12 cents from those lows.
Equity markets are pointing sharply lower after a weak Q1 GDP estimate which seems to have contributed to a pullback in product prices over the past few minutes, but don’t be surprised if the “bad news is good news” low interest rate junkies start jumping in later on.
The DOE’s weekly report showed sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, but inventory levels in most markets continue to follow their typical seasonal trends. Refinery runs held fairly steady last week with crude inputs down slightly but total gross throughputs up slightly as most facilities are now back online from a busy spring maintenance season and geared up for peak demand this summer.
Propane and propylene exports spiked to a record high north of 2.3 million barrels/day last week, which demonstrates both the US’s growing influence on global product markets, and the steady shift towards “other” products besides traditional gasoline and diesel in the level of importance for refiners.
The EIA acknowledged this morning that its weak diesel consumption estimates reflected the switch to Renewable Diesel on the West Coast, although they did not provide any timeline for when that data will be included in the weekly survey. The agency acknowledged that more than 4% of the total US consumption is now a combination of RD and Biodiesel, and that number is expected to continue to grow this year. This morning’s note also suggested that weak manufacturing activity was to blame for the sluggish diesel demand across the US, while other reports suggest the freight recession continued through Q1 of this year, which is also contributing to the big shift from tight diesel markets to oversupplied in several regions.
Valero kicked off the Q1 earnings releases for refiners with solid net income of $1.2 billion that’s a far cry from the spectacular earnings north of $3 billion in the first quarter of 2023. The refining sector made $1.7 billion, down from $4.1 billion last year. That is a pattern that should be expected from other refiners as well as the industry returns to a more normal market after 2 unbelievable years. You wouldn’t guess it by looking at stock prices for refiners though, as they continue to trade near record highs despite the more modest earnings.
Another pattern we’re likely to see continue with other refiners is that Renewable earnings were down, despite a big increase in production as lower subsidies like RINs and LCFS credit values sting producers that rely on those to compete with traditional products. Valero’s SAF conversion project at its Diamond Green joint venture is progressing ahead of schedule and will give the company optionality to flip between RD and SAF depending on how the economics of those two products shakes out this year. Valero also shows part of why refiners continue to disappear in California, with operating expenses for its West Coast segment nearly 2X that of the other regions it operates in.
Week 16 - US DOE Inventory Recap
Energy Markets Trading Quietly In The Red As Ethanol Prices Rally To Five-Month High
Energy markets are trading quietly in the red to start Wednesday’s session after a healthy bounce Tuesday afternoon suggested the Israel-Iran-linked liquidation had finally run its course.
There are reports of more Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy assets overnight, but the sources are sketchy so far, and the market doesn’t seem to be reacting as if this is legitimate news.
Ethanol prices have rallied to a 5-month high this week as corn and other grain prices have rallied after the latest crop progress update highlighted risks to farmers this year, lower grain export expectations from Ukraine, and the approval of E15 blends this summer despite the fact it pollutes more. The rally in grain and renewables prices has also helped RIN values find a bid after it looked like they were about to test their 4-year lows last week.
The API reported small changes in refined product inventories last week, with gasoline stocks down about 600,000, while distillates were up 724,000. Crude oil inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels according to the industry-group estimates. The DOE’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning.
Total reported another upset at its Port Arthur refinery that’s been a frequent flier on the TCEQ alerts since the January deep freeze knocked it offline and damaged multiple operating units. This latest upset seems minor as the un-named unit impacted was returned to normal operations in under an hour. Gulf Coast basis markets have shrugged off most reports of refinery upsets this year as the region remains well supplied, and it’s unlikely we’ll see any impact from this news.
California conversely reacted in a big way to reports of an upset at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery outside of LA, with CARBOB basis values jumping by more than a dime. Energy News Today continued to show its value by reporting the upset before the flaring notice was even reported to area regulators, proving once again it’s ahead of the curve on refinery-related events. Another industry news outlet meanwhile struggled just to remember where the country’s largest diesel seller is located.
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