Spring Break-Out Rally Continues

The spring break-out rally continues, as most energy futures are touching fresh 3 month highs again this morning. Strength in equity markets, healthy exports, and the ongoing issues in Venezuela all seem to be contributing to the strength, in addition to the momentum generated by the break in technical resistance last week.

US Crude oil production reached a new record high at 12 million barrels/day last week, and US oil exports also reached a record of 3.6 million barrels/day. The 25 million barrels of US crude that was sent out of the country last week alone probably explains why WTI is outperforming the rest of the petroleum complex today after being the weakest link for most of the recent rally.

A sharp drop in PADD 1 refinery runs to their lowest level in nearly 2 years, and subsequent reduction in gasoline stocks along the East Coast helps give a fundamental reason for the recent strength in futures and cash markets as the transition from winter to summer gasoline specs begins.

In addition to the weekly status report released yesterday, the EIA is highlighting its new Statistics tool in a note released this morning, showing the top energy consuming states by total and per capita. Texas, California and Florida continue to dominate in terms of total energy usage.


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