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Technical Breakout To The Upside In Energy Prices

Tuesday, May 5 2020
Market Talk

Theres a bit of a technical breakout to the upside happening in energy prices this week. WTI has doubled in value during the past five trading sessions, and RBOB gasoline futures are trading at a seven week high after punching through chart resistance that had repelled several attempted rallies in April.

ULSD futures are also seeing strong gains, touching three week highs in overnight trading as signs of economic activity beginning to pick up appear around the world. If these gains can hold on this week, charts are favoring a run back north of $1 for refined products in May.

As this Bloomberg article notes, there is no doubt that a recovery in demand is underway but there are more questions than answers on how long a return to normal might take, and how unevenly it may be spread among various types of fuel.

Dont worry, theyre not spying on youApples Mobility Trends report uses requests for directions in its mapping software to estimate movement in countries around the world. The data shows a clear tick up in driving activity over the past two weeks, consistent with several other data points, but transit activity has not seen any increase as people appear to be avoiding mass transportation options.

The IEA is also publishing estimates of transportation activity in major economies around the globe. That data shows how much more China and Indias restrictions curbed transportation than in the U.S. or in Europe, and also offers a glimpse at what the gradual recovery might look like over the coming weeks.

(Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.)

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