The Santa Claus Rally Has Started

The Santa Claus rally has started for energy and equity markets with modest gains to start post-Christmas trading. The API was said to show a large draw in oil inventories last week, which seems to be helping the early bid in energy futures, even as refined product inventories continued to increase. Trade optimism continues to lead the headlines as the U.S. & China continue to make gestures of cooperation.

The late December run-up has energy futures within striking distance of their September highs, set in the wake of the attacks on Saudi Oil facilities that took more than 5% of global production capacity offline. Those September highs should provide an important test to determine if the recent upward trend can last into the new year.

Gasoline basis values along the Gulf Coast have rallied by more than a nickel in the past week, which has wiped out the value for space on Colonial’s main gasoline line, just after it reached a 3 year high on 12/16. We’ll find out if this trend has staying power as traders return to their desks, or if this was a short-staffed anomaly and we’ll see the typical winter trends continue next week.

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