Oil Prices Continue To Drift Lower
Oil prices continue to drift lower this morning as the supply-risk premium has been largely erased from futures over the past week. RBOB gasoline futures had been resisting oil’s pull until the past few minutes as they’ve given up their overnight gains, and joined the rest of the complex in the red.
While futures have been trending lower, the real action this week continues to be in spot gasoline markets on the West Coast, as a large draw in PADD 5 gasoline stocks seemed to encourage the run-away train effect in California spot markets on Wednesday. LA CARBOB ended the day around 95 cents over October futures, while San Francisco was hovering around a 90 cent premium. Those differentials put spot prices on the west coast nearly $1/gallon higher than those on the Gulf and East coast. Those prices will begin their return to earth today as traders shift to October pipeline timing, with the newly prompt cycles trading some 20 cents below current values, but the region remains susceptible to new price spikes until imports start arriving with several refinery issues still lingering in the region.
Other highlights from the DOE’s weekly report include US Crude production climbing back to tie its all-time record at 12.5 million barrels/day, while refinery runs continued their seasonal decline. Gasoline stocks beyond the West Coast remain ample, while distillate inventories are getting tight – particularly in the Lower Atlantic states (PADD 1C).
Tropical Storm Karen continues to meander its way through the Atlantic, and is weakening as it moves, which is good news for the islands that have been battered so far this year. There is still a chance that the storm could head West towards the US Coast line next week, although the models are very uncertain on a path or whether it will have a chance to gain back some of its lost intensity.
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Refined Products Holding Close To Break Even While Oil Prices Are Losing Just Under 1%
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Week 17 - US DOE Inventory Recap
The Energy Complex Is Trading Modestly Lower So Far This Morning With WTI Crude Oil Futures Leading The Way
The energy complex is trading modestly lower so far this morning with WTI crude oil futures leading the way, exchanging hands $1.50 per barrel lower (-1.9%) than Tuesday’s settlement price. Gasoline and diesel futures are following suit, dropping .0390 and .0280 per gallon, respectively.
A surprise crude oil build (one that doesn’t include any changes to the SPR) as reported by the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday is taking credit for the bearish trading seen this morning. The Institute estimated an increase in crude inventories of ~5 million barrels and drop in both refined product stocks of 1.5-2.2 million barrels for the week ending April 26. The Department of Energy’s official report is due out at it’s regular time (9:30 CDT) this morning.
The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to hold a hearing at 9:00 AM EST this morning regarding a years-long probe into climate change messaging from big oil companies. Following a 3-year investigation, Senate and House Democrats released their final report yesterday alleging major oil companies have internally recognized the impacts of fossil fuels on the climate since as far back as the 1960s, while privately lobbying against climate legislation and publicly presenting a narrative that undermines a connection between the two. Whether this will have a tangible effect on policy or is just the latest announcement in an election-yeardeluge is yet to be seen.
Speaking of deluge, another drone attack was launched against Russian infrastructure earlier this morning, causing an explosion and subsequent fire at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery. While likely a response to the five killed from Russian missile strikes in Odesa and Kharkiv, Kyiv has yet to officially claim responsibility for the attack that successfully struck state infrastructure just 130 miles from Moscow.
The crude oil bears are on a tear this past week, blowing past WTI’s 5 and 10 day moving averages on Monday and opening below it’s 50-day MA this morning. The $80 level is likely a key resistance level, below which the path is open for the American oil benchmark to drop to the $75 level in short order.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.
Energy Futures Are Drifting Quietly Higher This Morning
Energy futures are drifting quietly higher this morning as a new round of hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to show relative promise. It seems the market is focusing on the prospect of cooler heads prevailing, rather than the pervasive rocket/drone exchanges, the latest of which took place over Israel’s northern border.
A warmer-than-expected winter depressed diesel demand and, likewise, distillate refinery margins, which has dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of 2022. The ULSD forward curve has shifted into contango (carry) over the past month as traders seek to store their diesel inventories and hope for a pickup in demand, domestic or otherwise.
The DOE announced it had continued rebuilding it’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve this month, noting the addition of 2.3 million barrels of crude so far in April. Depending on what the private sector reported for last week, Wednesday’s DOE report may put current national crude oil inventories (include those of the SPR) above the year’s previous levels, something we haven’t seen since April of 2022, two months after Ukraine war began.
The latest in the Dangote Refinery Saga: Credit stall-out, rising oil prices, and currency exchange.
Click here to download a PDF of today's TACenergy Market Talk.