Refined Products Set Fresh Multi-Month Highs In Another Strong Session For The Bulls Thursday
Refined products set fresh multi-month highs in another strong session for the bulls Thursday and have resumed that push higher this morning after a brief pullback overnight.
August RBOB futures reached $2.9679 this morning, the highest level since October of last year. It seems like we’ll see at least an attempt to try and push those values to $3 ahead of the contract expiration on Monday, before the roll to the September contract knocks about 7 cents off of the prompt values. The strength in futures and time spreads this week has come in spite of weakness in NYH basis differentials and Colonial linespace values as PADD 1 refinery runs quickly recovered after the extended downtime at the Bayway refinery.
ULSD futures are trading at their highest level since Valentine’s Day touching $2.9338 in the early going, which opens up a similar window for a push towards $3 just like RBOB. Unlike RBOB however, physical buyers seem to be jumping on the diesel bandwagon with stronger basis values seen across most of the country, and less backwardation in the forward curve means prompts values will drop just a penny or two after Monday’s expiration.
While refined products are celebrating a summer renaissance, ethanol values are heading the opposite direction, dropping by 25 cents this week on the back of weaker corn prices. The diverging price patterns has pushed the premium for gasoline vs ethanol (net of RIN values) north of $2/gallon.
We are still about 6 weeks away from the peak of hurricane season, but the NHC is tracking 3 different potential storm systems this morning, 2 of which could be threats for the east coast. The good news is 2 of the 3 systems are given low odds of development and are already close to shore giving them little chance to develop into something meaningful. The third system is given 60% odds of being named next week and is far enough north and east that it may stay offshore, but there is a possibility of some disruption along the Eastern Seaboard as it moves north.
There’s a common theme among the refiner Q2 earnings releases this week: The 2nd quarter of 2023 was nowhere near as strong as the record smashing margin environment they enjoyed a year ago, but margins are still pretty good given low inventory levels and recovering demand. The reports are also confirming what many on the West Coast already knew, that renewable diesel production has surged in the past 6 months and created a rapidly changing environment for the diesel marketplace as both the new renewable barrels and the old traditional diesel barrels all look for new homes.
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News & Views
View AllThe Recovery Rally In Energy Markets Continues For A 3rd Day
The recovery rally in energy markets continues for a 3rd day with refined product futures both up more than a dime off of the multi-month lows we saw Wednesday morning. The DJIA broke 40,000 for the first time ever Thursday, and while it pulled back yesterday, US equity futures are suggesting the market will open north of that mark this morning, adding to the sends of optimism in the market.
Despite the bounce in the back half of the week, the weekly charts for both RBOB and ULSD are still painting a bearish outlook with a lower high and lower low set this week unless the early rally this morning can pick up steam in the afternoon. It does seem like the cycle of liquidation from hedge funds has ended however, so it would appear to be less likely that we’ll see another test of technical support near term after this bounce.
Ukraine hit another Russian refinery with a drone strike overnight, sparking a fire at Rosneft’s 240mb/day Tuapse facility on the black sea. That plant was one of the first to be struck by Ukrainian drones back in January and had just completed repairs from that strike in April. The attack was just one part of the largest drone attack to date on Russian energy infrastructure overnight, with more than 100 drones targeting power plants, fuel terminals and two different ports on the Black Sea. I guess that means Ukraine continues to politely ignore the White House request to stop blowing up energy infrastructure in Russia.
Elsewhere in the world where lots of things are being blown up: Several reports of a drone attack in Israel’s largest refining complex (just under 200kbd) made the rounds Thursday, although it remains unclear how much of that is propaganda by the attackers and if any impact was made on production.
The LA market had 2 different refinery upsets Thursday. Marathon reported an upset at the Carson section of its Los Angeles refinery in the morning (the Carson facility was combined with the Wilmington refinery in 2019 and now reports as a single unit to the state, but separately to the AQMD) and Chevron noted a “planned” flaring event Thursday afternoon. Diesel basis values in the region jumped 6 cents during the day. Chicago diesel basis also staged a recovery rally after differentials dropped past a 30 cent discount to futures earlier in the week, pushing wholesale values briefly below $2.10/gallon.
So far there haven’t been any reports of refinery disruptions from the severe weather than swept across the Houston area Thursday. Valero did report a weather-related upset at its Mckee refinery in the TX panhandle, although it appears they avoided having to take any units offline due to that event.
The Panama Canal Authority announced it was increasing its daily ship transit level to 31 from 24 as water levels in the region have recovered following more than a year of restrictions. That’s still lower than the 39 ships/day rate at the peak in 2021, but far better than the low of 18 ships per day that choked transit last year.
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Energy Prices Found A Temporary Floor After Hitting New Multi-Month Lows Wednesday
Energy prices found a temporary floor after hitting new multi-month lows Wednesday morning as a rally to record highs in US equity markets and a modestly bullish DOE report both seemed to encourage buyers to step back into the ring.
RBOB and ULSD futures both bounced more than 6 cents off of their morning lows, following a CPI report that eased inflation fears and boosted hopes for the stock market’s obsession of the FED cutting interest rates. Even though the correlation between energy prices and equities and currencies has been weak lately, the spillover effect on the bidding was clear from the timing of the moves Wednesday.
The DOE’s weekly report seemed to add to the optimism seen in equity markets as healthy increases in the government’s demand estimates kept product inventories from building despite increased refinery runs.
PADD 3 diesel stocks dropped after large increases in each of the past 3 weeks pushed inventories from the low end of their seasonal range to average levels. PADD 2 inventories remain well above average which helps explain the slump in mid-continent basis values over the past week. Diesel demand showed a nice recovery on the week and would actually be above the 5 year average if the 5% or so of US consumption that’s transitioned to RD was included in these figures.
Gasoline inventories are following typical seasonal patterns except on the West Coast where a surge in imports helped inventories recover for a 3rd straight week following April’s big basis rally.
Refiners for the most part are also following the seasonal script, ramping up output as we approach the peak driving demand season which unofficially kicks off in 10 days. PADD 2 refiners didn’t seem to be learning any lessons from last year’s basis collapse and rapidly increased run rates last week, which is another contributor to the weakness in midwestern cash markets. One difference this year for PADD 2 refiners is the new Transmountain pipeline system has eroded some of their buying advantage for Canadian crude grades, although those spreads so far haven’t shrunk as much as some had feared.
Meanwhile, wildfires are threatening Canada’s largest oil sands hub Ft. McMurray Alberta, and more than 6,000 people have been forced to evacuate the area. So far no production disruptions have been reported, but you may recall that fires in this region shut in more than 1 million barrels/day of production in 2016, which helped oil prices recover from their slump below $30/barrel.
California’s Air Resources Board announced it was indefinitely delaying its latest California Carbon Allowance (CCA) auction – in the middle of the auction - due to technical difficulties, with no word yet from the agency when bidders’ security payments will be returned, which is pretty much a nice microcosm for the entire Cap & Trade program those credits enable.