Bullish Headlines Push Energy Prices Higher, Refinery Upsets Persist

Energy markets finally got something to talk about besides the debt debate Tuesday, with a pair of bullish headlines helping to push prices modestly higher once again. The move is relatively tame so far however, as shaky stock markets seem to be keeping optimism for a real rally at bay for now.

The API reported large declines in oil and gasoline inventories last week of more than 6 million barrels each, while distillates declined by 1.8 million barrels. The market jumped immediately following that report as it suggests that the demand doldrums that have plagued the industry for the past 6 months may finally be in the rear-view mirror. The EIA’s weekly report is due out at its normal time this morning and will be delayed next week due to Memorial Day. 

The Saudi oil minister issued another warning to oil speculators who have been shorting prices this year, once again using the threat of “ouching” which seems somewhat comical considering his country’s reputation regarding human rights. The market took those comments to mean that there’s a chance that the de-facto leader of OPEC & Friends would be pushing for more output cuts, and prices rallied following those statements. 

A week after suffering a deadly fire, the 3rd largest refinery in the country had another operational upset Monday, this time in a hydro-treating unit, according to a filing yesterday with the TCEQ. Gulf coast basis values continue to shrug off these reports, with little movement seen over the past week.

The Group 3 market did see a bit of a buying spree Tuesday after a fire broke out at the CVR refinery in Wynnewood OK, injuring two employees. Group 3 values had already been trading at healthy premiums to the Gulf Coast for most of the past 2 months as inventories dropped well below their seasonal range, and this latest tick higher should encourage more barrels to head north, particularly since the draw to ship barrels west is rapidly diminishing. 

Speaking of which, rack prices across the Southwestern US continue their return to earth as local refineries ramp up after spring maintenance, alleviating the severe product shortages, and sending premiums for prompt barrels plummeting 70 cents/gallon or more in the past 2 weeks.

A Reuters article Tuesday suggested the EPA was backpedaling on plans to introduce eRINs to the RFS program and was officially recommending delaying that move in the final ruling for 2023-2025 that’s due in 3 weeks. The more heavily traded D6 (ethanol) and D4 (bio) RIN values were little changed following the news, while the lightly traded D3 (cellulosic) RINs continued to recover after the initial plan sent their values sharply lower this year.

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