It’s An Unusually Quiet Start For Energy Prices Wednesday, Ahead Of A Busy Day Full Of Economic And Inventory Data Later This Morning

It’s an unusually quiet start for energy prices Wednesday, ahead of a busy day full of economic and inventory data later this morning, and an FOMC announcement this afternoon.

Unsubstantiated rumors that China may change their COVID-zero policy – which has kept a lid on demand in the world’s largest oil importer this year – was the easy headline to point to for the rally in crude and gasoline prices Tuesday, probably because that’s a much easier explanation than the realities of money flows in the market, particularly on the first trading day of a month. 

Other rumors that Iran may be planning an attack on Saudi Arabia, perhaps to turn attention away from the violent crackdown on protesters, were also given credit for a brief increase in overnight prices, although those moves proved short lived. 

The API reported a drawdown of 6.5 million barrels of oil in the US last week, as the SPR releases wind down and offer less of a supplement to commercial supplies. Gasoline stocks were reported to drop by 2.6 million barrels while distillates increased by 865,000 barrels.  The DOE/EIA’s weekly report is due out at its normal time. 

The majority of the global market is expecting the FOMC to announce another 75 point rate increase today – the 4th consecutive increase of that size - with the CME’s FedWatch tool showing an 86% probability of that increase priced in to FED Fund futures.  The big question is if the FOMC will signal a slowdown in hikes in future meetings, with the market fairly split between a 50 and 75 point hike at December’s meeting. The FED Chair is set to give a news conference at 1:30 central, which can often create more volatility than the announcement itself.

Tropical Storm Lisa is heading towards Belize, and a new long range model gives that storm a chance to redevelop after crossing the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico next week, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that storm for a few more days. Tropical Storm Martin has formed in the North Atlantic, but is moving away from the US and does not pose a threat to land. In addition to the two late season tropical storms, the NHC is giving low (20%) odds of another system forming in the Caribbean over the next 5 days. The official Hurricane season ends November 30, leaving just about 4 weeks for the market to hold their breath that we make it through without a disruption to the supply network that’s wound historically tight.

For those that don’t like reading, the WSJ has published a video noting the complexities (aka loopholes) in sanctions that continue to allow Russian oil to end up in the US, and why the new sanctions set to take place in December may force another shift in supply. The refinery highlighted in that video has become a hot topic of conversation over the past week as Italy races to do what it can to keep it operating. Looking forward, as China and India continue to buy more Russian crude, and expand their refining capacity, it’s easy to see how more and more US imports of refined products could be starting out as crude oil in Russia. 

For those that do like reading, take a look at this thorough explanation from RBN energy of what’s thrown diesel markets out of whack this year, and why an export ban would be counterproductive. 

Grain markets are breathing a sigh of relief after Russia agreed to rejoin the truce on shipments in the Black Sea, which may help cool the recent run up in ethanol prices. Then again, the rail strike that was “narrowly averted” in September continues to crop up as 2 unions have refused to ratify that agreement, setting the stage for another showdown later this month that could have widespread impacts on the distribution of ethanol and numerous other commodities.  

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